A633.5.3 RB Reflections on Chaos

Chaos theory in leadership is a result from a mathematic equation applied to a complex process.  Chaos theory can be applied to anything and any field.  This theory broken down to its lowest form is basically a non-linear, unpredictable set of occurrences that if viewed from the random seem unrelated when observed from the whole are interconnected and interwoven (Singh, H., & Singh, A., 2002).  For example, the universe or the big bang, of even the way coffee looks in a cup.  Chaos theory in the information and digital age creates a place every-more "chaotic" then the all other models.  Traditional hierarchal and patriarchal leadership models no longer describe what the environment of society looks or acts like (Ates, 2015).  The application of chaotic methods comes close to describing modern markets and how everything from the producer to the consumer is connected, even the smallest of changes in the markets can have ripple affects throughout the globe.   

A simplified drill of chaos in motion with the application of adaptable leadership is to gather 50 people or so in a large room and ask them to equally separate from 2 other people equally spaced.  While this seems relatively impossible, eventually an adaptive leader, evolves.  Most of the populace will scoff at this experiment and its complexity but somehow with a few minutes the puzzle is solve (Obolensky, N., 2016).  If at the end, we were to look down from the ceiling to the heads of the individuals we would see nodal crossings and interconnected webs fabrics, while the individual might only see those next to him.  Next try drawing an intersect lines from each of the participates heads.  We would find a very complex organism with interconnections and no single origin, this is chaos, it has patterens, shapes yet are only observed as a whole.  It is this experiment that shows how confusing chaos can be (initially) yet it also demonstrates how adaptive the theory can be when a leader lead through the experiment.  

An subset of chaos is the butterfly affect which goes something like if a butterfly flapping its wings in Argentina causes a tornado in Kansas.  While this is far fetch, chaos mathematics allows this to happen, it is what shapes strategies or national policies, from the highest forms of government to the connected foundational enlisted.  Chaos in leadership is just as complex in the miltiary and requires that leaders and followers adapt to the environment that is always changing around them.  Take for example a stupid prison guard snapping a picture in a far prison, this same picture and the actions of a few change the face of global policies and treatment of non-combatants.  It directly attributes to an upheaval in local violence and is debated in the halls of the United Nations (Bakir, 2017).  This picture changes the way that American forces react, it changes the ideas of the war, with a simple jpeg.  My entire idea of chaotic strategy changed.            

A good leader adapts to the complex chaos instead of trying to exert authority or situational leadership over it.  Peter Northhouse describes this as Adaptive Leadership, he defines this type of leadership as follower centered.  He emphasizes how followers can solve problems in their own nodes.  It is best suited for chaos because it requires followers to respond to the environment rather than being instructed how in a linear way.  Illustrating the same experiment as earlier applied to a massive Fortune 500 company like Apple or Wal-Mart.  That same 50 people becomes thousands spread throughout the world.  The price of lithium in China is interconnected to the American consumer battery repair, the system adapts to this change and chaos flourishes.  Chaos theory is complex, but it is not complicated.  It is up to the adaptive leader to learn how to navigate through the unknown.  I use chaos theory everyday sometimes without knowing or without understanding.  Chaos theory is an outstanding view of how the National Space Defense Center operates everyday.  

References

Ateş H. (2015) Managing Successful Projects to Prevent Chaos and Complexity in Organizations. In: Erçetin Ş., Banerjee S. (eds) Chaos, Complexity and Leadership 2013. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham

Bakir, V. (2017). Abu Ghraib. In P. Joseph (Ed.), The SAGE Encyclopedia of War: Social Science Perspectives (Vol. 1, pp. 1-5). Los Angeles: SAGE Reference.

Northhouse, P. (2016) Leadership; Theory and Practice 7^thEdition. SAGE Publications. 

Obolensky, N., (2016). Complex adaptive leadership: Embracing paradox and uncertainty. Burlington, Vt;Farnham, Surrey;: Gower

Singh, H., & Singh, A. (2002). Principles of complexity and chaos theory in project execution: Anew approach to management. Cost Engineering, 44(12), 23-32.   

A633.4.2 RB Changing Dynamics of Leadership.

   "Energy is the carrier wave of change (Pater, 2015)."  Leaders modulate the carrier wave to move the organization through the spectrum.  This modulation requires change and pulse energy for the company to produce, that is a leader’s job.  This change is both necessary and continual.  A constant shift in consciousness strengthens our capacity to adapt, it unlocks the complexity of leadership, supporting our new adaptive strategies.  

   This shift in consciousness gives leaders today a complex system even before they "take the seat."  Forming a new modulation to the wave form, becoming adaptive to the spectrum.  Adaption of modern leaders is essential for survival (Wayne, 2018).  New leaders today have instant communication with virtually any subject matter expert they might need.  In the past, leaders did not have this instant relationship power.  Author, Annabel Beerel writes in her book, Leadership and Change Management, that in order to survive companies should ensure the relationship power (Beerel, 2009).  Relationship power can come in many forms one of those is change and change management in new leaders.  Leadership in the modern era is not a single "King" commanding the monarchy rather it is living organism that contains many different components of the network (which of course could be guided, mentored and driven by a senior person).  

  Leadership is no longer contain in a vacuum and in order to unlock the potential leaders need to recognize that they are not alone, leaders are held up by others.  Leaders build their webs throughout their life, those trusted advisors that support them.  Even the highest office in the United States government is not "ruled" by one single person, the president office of the United States has gone through many evolutions from leading the 13 colonies to leading in the 21st century.  The presidency is larger than just one person, the president is the director, the facilitator, the chief adaptor and national representative through complex process of government (Wayne, 2018).  Theories of leadership have varied greatly over the last few centuries that have tried to encompass this paradigm shift, one of the newest theories is Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS).  Future leaders, high school, colleges students, and even new military recruits apply this theory everyday (unknowingly).  They are weaving, forging and molding their complex system.  

  Strategies are inherently complex, adaptive and carried out by leaders that thrive in that environment.  Strategies that allow for new modulation scheme are more relevant, prevalent and inspiring.  Companies have to complex strategies that are open-minded and malleable to the demand signal.  For example, Apple for example was a a small computer company in 1976, and struggle to get out Microsoft shadow.  It did not hold a corner of the market and leaders seemed to be one step behind.  It was not until 2003 timeframe, when the company reinvented itself and became the world leaders in mobile digital music.  Steve jobs, broaden the scope of Apple, he opened the world to new ways of mobile music, smart phones and tablets (Air, 2012).  Companies like Apple and Jobs work together to create a giant company that is interwoven in the fabric of this century.  

 While I do not purpose that the I will ever run a company as large as Apple, I can use visionary leadership to shape the consciousness of my own organization.  I can rely on the complexities that do happen to help guide, mentor and develop my own replacements.   For example I recently went to the Senior Non-Commissioned Officer Academy (SNCOA).  During my time there, I meet new people and expanded my social network of leadership by 25%, in fact to put this another way, my LinkedIn network increase by 125 people.  I almost immediately started to reach out to those folks cutting my list to those "could help" and those "that just wanted to connect."  In regard to the former, we did not even make it back to base before we started to rely on each other’s values, opinions and advise.  Social networks give me virtual boards of directors from finance to operations, I realized how important that social strength was to me and my leadership growth.  I am bombarded with opinions and can instantly reach out to subject matter experts to help with any situation.  This does not make me a weak leader instead it puts me in a position to drop the charade of leadership and accept better ways and feedback. The energy of an organization is a wave, that is begging to be modulated.  

References

Beerel, A. (2009). Leadership and change management. Retrieved    from https://ebookcentral.proquest.com

Nair, P. B., & Leng, Q. A. (2012). The sweet and sour apple: Thecase of CEO strategies at apple inc. Vidwat, 5(1), 21.

Pater, R. (2015). Advanced culture change leadership. Professional Safety, 60(9), 24-26. Retrieved from 

http://search.proquest.com.ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/docview/1709999607?accountid=27203

Wayne, S. J. (2018). Presidency, the. In S. Bronner (Ed.), Encyclopedia of American studies. MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/login?url=https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/jhueas/presidency_the/0?institutionId=951

   

633.3.3 Complex Adaptive Systems

Most of the Fortune 500 companies, are arguably complex systems that require different leadership styles.  Companies like Morning Star, Apple, Wal-Mart and Amazon are complex organisms that are not simple linear diagrams.  A good company model that demonstrates the CAS model is number 18 on the Fortune 500 list, Kroger (Fortune 500, 2018).  Kroger is one of the nation's largest grocery retailer.  This giant company was founded in 1883 by Benard Kroger, a loud mouth entrepreneur who wanted to lower the price of groceries (Mancini, 2015).  It is now the top twenty Fortune company that owns everything from Kwiki-Stops and Littman jewelry stores.  The Kroger Company owns 38 manufacturing plants and has coast to coast partnership with other grocery companies.  This is a complex system that requires key strategies to focus down from the large mega-company to the store owners.  

    The current CEO of Kroger Rodeny McCullen was named as one of the best CEO's in 2014 by CNN.  His humble demeanor and customer first strategies have made Kroger a War-Mart competitor.  McCullen was the first to introduce loyalty cards for customers, enticing them to come back.  Kroger and McCullen introduced a new culture, forging new strategies but focused on the fundamentals.  Kroger's empire is not just about the bottom-line, on their main home page the Kroger company is committed to the the customers health, the environment and ease of the experience, in an attempt to be different in their strategy.  Kroger has also made way for technological adaptions in their grocery stores like ClickList (on-line shopping and pickup service) and grocery delivery (Factbook, 2018).  In fact, just this morning I used ClickList and then bought gas at a discounted rate from a Kroger store. 

    The Kroger values include, honesty, diversity, integrity, value (pricing), and inclusion.  These terms as a fundamental plane stabilize the shopping experience. They keep the associates grounded in moral responsibilities inside of the complex.  The strategy that Kroger has defined is uniquely different from that of other discounted services in that it wants the customer feedback and accepts the challenge to change from the normal and the known to the unknown and the different.  

    In my experience in the Air Force, change is not fast and the roadmap did not allow for logical off-ramps and strategy was built in stove-pipe linear systems and programs.  Change was made slowly and different is an anomaly.  The military does not do different fast, changes in strategy is made very slowly, especially in Air Force Space Command.  The scars of paralysis by analysis still torment the command’s functionality.  This is further illustrated in Martin-Reeves TED talk, he discusses the highly insufficient strategies that are narrowly focused, and are not adaptive, visionary and stagnate.  For example, it was not until the post-9/11 world that AFSPC stop having a Cold War mentality about acquisitions, this continued for decades.  Until recently, AFSPC had been a supporting role in others domains, a sudo service provider.  Since 2016, AFSPC has been trying to change its image, to change its mentality, to change its culture.  AFSPC is trying to establish a new “roadmap” to ensure deliberately develop new Airman and new systems in the new domain (Space, 2016).

  In conclusion, Complex Adaptive System is a new leadership model that applies advanced mathematics to new modern markets.  Modern technological leaps have catapulted companies, militaries, governments into complex organisms with multiple touch points are cross, bend and intertwine.  Arguably all of the Fortune 500 companies fall into the CAS model.  Companies like Kroger, whose reach includes everything from manufacturing and produce to jewelry companies.  The Kroger Company as a whole attempts to stay ahead of technological advances, consumers and even environmental trends by building stores and values that are centered on these three things.  The company has short and long term strategies that guide around these three things in a SMART manner.  The US military, specifically AFSPC did not move like that.  The strategies took time and caught many people off guard, the results meant that the systems, people and logistics did not keep up with the adversary.  I hope with a new outlook and a adaptive strategy we will be better prepared for the future.  

References

"Kroger Company." Gale Encyclopedia of U.S. Economic History, edited by Thomas Riggs, 2nd    ed., vol. 2,Gale, 2015, pp. 698-699. Gale Virtual Reference Library, 

                        

Facebook, Kroger (2018) https://www.thekrogerco.com/wp     content/uploads/2017/08/TheKrogerFactBook_2016.pdf

Fortune 500: Number 18 Kroger http://fortune.com/fortune500/kroger/

Mancini, C., Salamie, D., & Steinke, R. (2015). The kroger co

Space Command Public Affairs. (2016). Hyten announces space enterprise vision. 

    (). Washington: Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc.

A633.3.4 Complexity Science

    This weeks blog is the evolution of the complexity in the U.S. Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) enterprise.  As the youngest Major Command in the Air Force, Space Command has rapidly expanded its mission and support from a predominately supporting command to other war fighting domains to only recently over the past 2 years, given this trajectory, the command will evolve in that mold over the next ten years.  Since I joined space operations in 2005, I have seen the ups and downs, the convergences and divergence of ideas, missions, strategies, complexities, and yes, even complicated issues.  I have had the awesome privilege of working in key development and leadership positions to set in motion some of command's evolutions.  Even today, I worked as the Senior Enlisted Leader, in the very beginnings of a new Task Force.  I have witnessed new space centers develop, new weapon systems created and missions change.   

  During the early years of the Space Command, the Regan Administration, the Command was preparing to fight in a nuclear exchange with a near-peer nation.  Then the technological boom of the 90's put in motion a posture putting AFSPC in a more supporting role to the combat Air Forces.  Then 9/11 changed everything for the entire military, AFPSC could no longer could take the back seat.  We started to deploy sometimes without guidance and strategy.  I deployed several times during these years, without a strategy without training.  Modern warfare was complex and without strategy it was complicated.    

   AFSPC needed to transform rapidly, without an accurate and measurable strategy for many years to keep up with the demand.  AFSPC got caught in bureaucratic processes and became stale (Stumborg, 2006).  It needed to transform into something else, something more streamlined, something with a vision statement that compliments the modern complexities.  Recently, the former commander of AFPSC now the Commander Strategic Command, wrote in 2016 that AFSPC needed to re-posture and re-orgnaize in a war fighting mentality, changing its culture (Johnson-Freese, 2016).  When I participated in the writing of the construct we received direct feedback from Combatant Commands, wing commanders, squadron commanders and senior enlisted advisors that we were behind, we needed to evolve.  Feedback from commander revolved that AFSPC had become stagnant and stuck in its own process    

  This feedback was felt from the White House to a tactical commander.  This new construct drives the culture, set the pace, and establishes new acquisition strategies to match.  AFSPC could no longer depend on process to catch up.  We developed systems faster than ever.  The space operations crews transformed with this pace, we trained differently, we engaged differently, we deliberately developed.  General Hyten published a new vision developed from feedback, called the Space Enterprise Vision (Space, 2016) .  This developed the origins that we needed, created a principle direction and fundamental plane.  Now AFSPC had a coordinate system to build a new architecture.

  Since then, we have moved an pace I have never witnessed.  We developed our own Joint Force Space Component, we developed our own center for defense, we have streamlined the acquisition framework.  While slow to build up steam, the enterprise is slowly starting to move.  I think in the next ten years, we will have a solid space defense plan, we will have trained personnel to engage in "in-blind" wars, we will see space as a dominate domain   Space warfare is coming and we will be prepared, through solid strategies and constructs to hang our new framework on.  I am training young troops now that will be in command in ten years, to make crucial timely decisions and deliberately plan for the worst contingencies.              

References

• Johnson-Freese, J. (2016). A space mission force for the global commons of space. The SAIS Review of International Affairs, 36(2), 5.

• Space Command Public Affairs. (2016). Hyten announces space enterprise vision. (). Washington: Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc.

Stumborg, M. F. (2006). Air force space command: A transformation case study. Air & Space Power Journal, 20(2), 79

A633.2.3RB Butterfly Effect

    Everything we as leaders do, say, and act upon has consequences that are measurable in short, immediate and long terms and interwoven into the complexities of the organization.  An order to chaos is the butterfly effect, where a poor butterfly in brazil could cause a tornado in Texas (Lorenz, 1972). Edward Lorenz wrote this theory in order to better study meteorological events however it is used across the fields today.  Leaders are both the butterfly and the tornado.  We remember the leaders that led greatly, but we also remember the leaders that led poorly, we are distilled with the fingerprints of our leaders.  We adapt to repeated qualities and adopt dependable qualities or as Johnson writes "coded".  We focus on extremes and strip away the details.  I cannot tell you what my first supervisor in the military looked liked or even remember his last name.  I can tell you how he treated me and what I learned from him and then reflected on my own troops years later (and one supposes that the pattern continues and continues).  Small changes impacts peoples/organizations futures, "yield large results (Oboloensky, 2016)."  Changing the simple initial conditions can have huge effects on the results (Lorenz, 2017).  This simple yet chaotic effect is absolutely true in leadership/follower-ship.  The impacts that a leader has on followers will provide dividends and dividends both positive and negative.  

   The military is a great example of the butterfly effect.  It demonstrates how a simple legacy adapts and the experimental leadership model continues everyday and every day we are influence by those before and those after us.  Leaders in the military are hyper focused at first then broaden their views eventually (well hopefully).  A leader, especially one in a power position, will influence the culture of the unit.  The leaders set the tone, this reflects from the lowest to the highest rank and has profound affects on the morale of the institution.  For example, a few units ago, my morale was tanking, my pride, purpose and motivation lacked every day, it soon poured over to my home life.  I eventually started to need to go get counseling.  Then one day, while in a large meeting, my Group Commander came into the room and announced that she had relieve my Squadron Commander of his job.  Just like that my mood, personality and alcohol dependencies diminished.  She later briefed us that the culture of the unit was eroding the ability to accomplish the mission.  The Squadron Commander and his attitude decimated the morale of everyone.  I still remember this day but I cannot remember all the details, the point is that his leadership impacts me even today.  Years later at my first command assignment I walked in expecting to find a well oiled machine that had been around since 1917 but instead I found something different.  I found a single cancer that impacted everyone around her.  She was setting such a negative tone that folks around her started to need further help.  And just like that I had witness how leadership still affected me.  I immediately fired her, improving the impoverished.  

   Another example of leadership in chaotic motion is in my current command assignment.  I see folks wandering the halls, establishing social tribes, and living autonomously to their assignments.  During my earlier years I had seen this before, when I had the enormous task of establishing a new weapon system and the associated unit.  I recruited some of the best minds in the business, handpicking them, each with a unique skillset, each interwoven into the makeup of the initial cadre.  Right off the bat, I put everyone in the same room, knocked down two feet of extra walls, removed all the doors and centralized the social table.  I needed them to focus on each other and their skills.  I removed all tribal barriers and social distastes.  We went from a cadre of ten to a squadron of 200 in a matter of two years following this same model.  Fast forward back to my current command, I see the tribes, I feel the misunderstanding and the misappropriation of personnel.  Folks are dragging and not communicating; reducing our mission effectiveness.  (Apply butterfly effect).  I need to make considerable changes in the culture of the organism to ensure that we are all moving to the same beat, removal physical barriers that hinder cross-communication and restore pride purpose and motivation to a struggling organization.   Remembering the lessons of the past to reflect on the culture of tomorrow.    

   In conclusion, the butterfly effect is a theory that proposes that small changes yield giant results. This axiom remains unchanged since it was created.  We apply it in computers, business models and leadership.  It is the never ending bow waves of leadership that impact the everyday lives of both the individual and the organism.  Leadership can profoundly impact peoples lives, morale and welfare, it can shape an attitude and in my business get people killed.  Leadership is evolving yet I remember how now almost two decades ago, my first leaders yelled at me to buckle my belt.  The military is a great leadership experiment that in my opinion continues to practice the butterfly effect as the ripples of yesterday are felt today and will continue to tomorrow.  The lessons that I learned so long ago are just as empowering today as they will be tomorrow.  



References

Johnson, B., Lorenz, E., & Lundwell, B. (2002). Why all this fuss about codified and tacit knowledge?. Industrial & Corporate Change, 11(2), 245-262.

Lorenz, Edward Norton. (2017). In P. Lagasse, & Columbia University, The Columbia encyclopedia (7th ed.). New York, NY: Columbia University Press. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/login?url=https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/columency/lorenz_edward_norton/0?institutionId=951

Obolensky N. (2016) Complex adaptive Leadership; Embracing Paradox and Uncertainty. Routledge Tylor & Francis Group, London and New York